All Bets Are Off

"Nom De Plume" (unlistedusername)
03/16/2020 at 00:18 • Filed to: None

It was just announced every hotel and casino on the Las Vegas strip is closing and henceforth rejecting reservations. Not quite a 100 acre hospital in 6 days but we appear to be starting to take this seriously.

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DISCUSSION (17)

atfsgeoff > Nom De Plume
03/16/2020 at 00:26

So what are the Vegas odds on this global halt on the economy restarting before May?

Nom De Plume > atfsgeoff
03/16/2020 at 00:30

8 weeks out is a guesstimation of where the world and specifically the US will be at if people do their damndest to keep it from spreading. I think at this point in time the backlash for taking bets on this in Vegas would be immeasurable.

pip bip - choose Corrour > Nom De Plume
03/16/2020 at 00:38

that’s going to anger my older brother who’s in the US at the moment

AestheticsInMotion > Nom De Plume
03/16/2020 at 00:43

I wonder if this is going to be the new model for dealing with viral outbreaks from here on out on the global stage . Also curious at what point the cost of shutting everything down outweighs the potential benefits of slowing the spread of infection, and how best to measure that.

PyramidHat > atfsgeoff
03/16/2020 at 00:51

I’d reckon decent. At work we’re expecting a return to the old normal in about 6 weeks. Unless we completely shi t the bed...

Nom De Plume > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 00:54

We’ve had China (Who’s scientists and newly minted experts are all flocking to help in), Italy ( Who’s in the crux moment and screaming at anyone who will listen to act yesterday and work like that is two weeks too late).

In Vegas, which next to certain parts of Florida is almost primarily the aged, this was a no brainer. They’d never recover without 50+ conference attendees making loads of money or the one eyed bandit pulling retirees.

DipodomysDeserti > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 00:59

Proper public health responses takes all that into account. At this point we’re just reacting, as we had no plan whatsoever.

One of my professors was the head of our county DOH during our West Nile Virus outbreak (it’s a lot worse than coronavirus and can leave people with debilitating brain damage). He gave a whole lecture in my toxicology course on what went into designing the county’s response.

The pesticide they were initially going to use was predicted to sicken more people from the virus. He said a lot of municipalities just went ahead and used it without actually conducting a proper study.

ClassicDatsunDebate > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 01:09

It’s all about flattening the curve. Italy was late and they were fucked. It’s all about preventing a huge blip in infections which would overwhelm the healthcare system. I don’t want any doctor in North America having to decide between which patient to save.

AestheticsInMotion > DipodomysDeserti
03/16/2020 at 01:12

Assume that we (America) did just shut everything down, full lockdown. Wuh an style. Would that be warranted, even if it did contain the virus? A month of everything ground to a halt, with all of the ramifications that would entail? That’s more the thought process going through my head.

As for our current situation, if this gets bad enough to be leveraged into a way to mandate paid sick leave... Would that be better than a quick tapering off of infections?

The pesticide thin g doesn’t surprise me. People panic, and jump towards anything they think will help. Honestly, m y knee-jerk reaction was to view our response to Covid- 19 a s a bit rediculous for something that seems minor, relative to other recent epidemics that have elicited very little panic, or even concern by the general populace.

AestheticsInMotion > ClassicDatsunDebate
03/16/2020 at 01:21

Sure, but there’s a very real cost to the measures being put forth to flatten the curve. People losing income sources for weeks or months, businesses shutting down permanently, evictions, full-on recession. All of these things will also lead to loss of life.

And again, why are we so heavy-handed with CV when we as a country have had a comparatively h ands-off approach to our most recent epidemics that were considerably more deadly? I’m not trying to say CV isn’t serious, it’s clearly much more than a late-season flu. I’m just n ot convinced that our current panic-driven plan will help more than it hurts in the long run.

DipodomysDeserti > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 01:29

You need to have plans set in place ahead of time. These types of things have only been happening since the dawn of man. Just shutting everything down with no real plan is bound to have lots of negative ramifications, including deaths.

At least this one is less deadly than last coronavirus outbreak compliments of China. That one they tried to hide from the WHO.

ClassicDatsunDebate > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 01:31

Oh I’ve had the same thoughts. Mass hysteria? Etc. On the other hand, not everything can be measured by its economics.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Nom De Plume
03/16/2020 at 09:04

With Vegas - I mean Paradise - being unincorporated that is not a good place to be sick.

Nom De Plume > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available
03/16/2020 at 09:13

Yet they draw multiple millions every year to somewhere that is known for being diseased and immoral to the utmost. From an infrastructure standpoint I can certainly see the draw of 150K beds existing in what is essentially a heavily secured corridor.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Nom De Plume
03/16/2020 at 09:16

A heavily secured unincorporated corridor, meaning less heavily taxed.

Nom De Plume > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available
03/16/2020 at 09:31

I’m failing to see the link between tax rate and emergency use by some element with said entity taxes are collected by.

Dusty Ventures > AestheticsInMotion
03/16/2020 at 09:37

Because there’s never been a pandemic that spread this fast. The U.S. has gone from 15 cases to over 3,600 in a month. That’s an average increase of 20% per day (note, the increase was actually less than 1% for most of that span, then spiked to 25-30% over the past week as testing increased). If it continued to spread at even half that rate (and maintained the current 2% fatality rate) we’d have 64 ,000 cases and 1,3 00 deaths in the U.S. alone by this time next month. In three months it would be 19.5 million with 391 ,000 dead. 10 days after that U.S. deaths would cross the million mark.

Even if you apply the current global rate of 4% per day you’re looking at 11,000 cases in the U.S. in a month, 120,000 in three, and 4 million by September with 82,000 dead. It would take 8 months to kill a million Americans, 9 months to infect half the U.S. population. That’s the rate at which this thing is spreading.